Coronavirus: “Bomb” prediction! “Mask everywhere, telework and lockdown otherwise 700 cases per day”!

Nightmare predictions by the research team HERACLES and the AUTh. They propose specific measures… now so that the coronavirus does not turn into a nightmare that we have not even imagined. The numbers of mathematical models are inconceivable.

If the spread of the coronavirus is not stopped, we will exceed 700 cases per day by the end of 2020!

These are the data presented by the research team HERACLES for the Exhibition and Health of the Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Innovation and the Laboratory of Environmental Engineering of the Department of Chemical Engineering of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, headed by Professor Demosthenes Sarigiannis.

Data that is really breathtaking, at the time when August has entered the red and in the last five days we have a steady three-digit number of cases.

More specifically, the study states that if the measures announced by the government and the health authorities are not observed, then the situation at the end of the year will be dramatic.

See the relevant table

(months along bottom, blue bar – cases (total), red bar – deaths (total), amber bar – ICU needs )

The measures proposed to prevent the coronavirus from turning into an absolute nightmare

  • The mass implementation of measures of social distancing in closed spaces of commercial enterprises, service enterprises, office spaces (public services or private enterprises) and other closed and open public gathering places ) and in public transport (with a limit to 50% of their fullness and corresponding increase of the routes for the service of the passenger public), the observance of the rules of social distance and the use of means of protection in places of religious worship
  • Avoiding unnecessary synchronicity and mass social events (setting a limit of 10 people for private or public gatherings)
  • The mandatory use of a mask for employees in all workplaces and even the availability of the mask by the employer himself (with the incentive of tax relief)
  • Mandatory and proper use of a mask by all indoors and outdoors where necessary (commercial enterprises, service companies, office spaces (public services or private companies) and other indoor and outdoor public gathering places)
  • The immediate integration of 75% of civil servants in a teleworking regime
  • Indoor air disinfection (public services, private companies, clinics, places of religious worship and gatherings)
  • Reducing the opening hours of entertainment centers (proposed until 12 at night)
  • The strict application of these measures for two months with an increase in the amount of administrative fines for non-compliance with the rules of social distance and the mandatory use of a protective mask is proposed to amount to € 300.
  • The intensification of controls at all entrance gates and within the country and the activation of university laboratories to increase the coronavirus detection capacity.
  • The use of environmental epidemiology systems in urban or hotel wastewater and indoor air for timely identification of SARS – CoV -2 superconducting outbreaks .

Professor Demosthenes Sarigiannis emphasizes: “The analysis of the dynamics of the pandemic in the country showed that the current situation is due to the relaxation in the implementation of protection, social distance and personal hygiene measures by the Greek population combined with increased flows of asymptomatic and symptomatic opening of the country gates during July.

If the observed relaxation continues for the rest of the summer season at the end of September, we will have around 430 cases per day and a cumulative 22000 cases from the beginning of the pandemic from the 5420 we have today. If the spread of the virus is not stopped, the growth rate of cases will reach 573 by the end of October and is expected to exceed 700 per day by the end of 2020, putting unbearable pressure on the national health system .

Given the negative epidemiological picture in the peripheral unit of Thessaloniki, we analyze the case of the lockdown application in the area of ​​Thessaloniki after the 15th of August and until the 31st of August. The measure would also contribute to reducing the spread of the virus. ”

At the same time, there are even more ominous scenarios based on the calculations…

How the research was done

The survey was conducted with the Covid-19 (Covid-19 RiskEvaluation – CORE) computer tool for Health Risk Assessment. Specifically, a series of non-pharmacological interventions were analyzed in order to quantitatively assess their impact on health risk management taking into account socio-economic constraints in order to address the health crisis by ensuring the sustainability and long-term development of the national economy and .

The dilemma of “protecting public health or economic growth and avoiding economic disaster” must be answered with the principle of “effective and decisive protection of public health with prudence to ensure economic growth and social cohesion”.


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