Omicron mutation: De-escalation – surprise and “good news” from scientists

Steadfastly and unwaveringly, we must continue to implement the measures imposed by the state after the suggestion of experts shortly before the New Year, as pointed out by the Professor of Environmental Engineering at AUTh, Demosthenes Sarigiannis, in order to overcome the Omicron mutation.

Yesterday’s recommendation of the Committee of Experts to extend the restrictive measures until January 23 will help further de-escalate the spread of the Omicron mutation he says.

“We must not relax now that the cases have dropped and the Commission’s scientists have suggested that the measures be continued. On the other hand, these people up to 40 years old who are supposed to have more social contacts, should continue not to see grandparents, vulnerable groups, relatives, etc., because as long as we keep this defense we will continue to have good results “, the Professor emphasizes .

De-escalation – surprise

According to the mathematical models of the Department of Environmental Engineering, the exponential dispersion of the Omicron variant, which has caused an “explosion” of cases above and beyond any previous scientific forecast since the end of December, has been slowing down over the last week. In fact, epidemiologists appear surprised (but also cautious) as the de-escalation was not expected earlier than the end of January.

The reasons why the scientists were surprised, according to Professor Sarigiannis, can be summarized as follows:

The first explanation for the recession, which began just a week after the New Year, is that the population implemented the measures recommended by scientists with even greater rigor.

“Tables were cancelled on New Year’s Eve and people closed their homes. They were all confined to the immediate family. There was a good and serious implementation of the measures and this gives us the result we have at the moment “, explains the Professor of AUTh.

“Young people became infected to a greater extent than recorded”

All the scientists expected the Omicron mutation to de-escalate between January 20 and 25, based on epidemiological mathematical models, which took into account two main factors: the increase in vaccinations – and especially the third dose – but also the restrictive measures in recreation and sports.

In these models, however, a second unbalanced factor was not calculated. And this is the wall of immunity created by those who became ill without symptoms, a percentage that has not been recorded.

More specifically, the citizens who did not limit themselves to the holidays – that is, the younger ones – and who were finally infected on New Year’s Eve and around these days, were probably far more than those counted, so a bigger wall of immunity than we know was created. :

“We estimate that about three times as many cases have been infected. “Thus, a sufficient percentage of citizens are gathered who have acquired immunity almost en masse in Omicron”, says the Professor.

The increase in vaccinations

The positive role of vaccinations is a given, according to Mr. Sarigiannis:

“The reason I do not mention it is not because I am reducing it, but because we had taken this into account in the old models anyway, with which we estimated that we would reach 53,000 cases on January 20-23,” he says, adding that we arrived today. to 35 thousand cases on a weekly average, mainly due to the unbalanced factors described above: self-restraint on New Year’s Eve that stopped Omicron’s momentum, but also three times the number of people who got sick and do not know it:

“Asymptomatic people do not know they have Covid, so it is good to keep the measure of distance as a precaution. This will reduce the cases even more “, the Professor emphasizes.

Do we have a real recession in the Omicron mutation wave?

However, Professor Demosthenes Sarigiannis raises hot questions about whether the decline in cases over the last 5 to 7 days is real, or whether there will be some unpleasant surprises during the week, with a sharp increase in cases.

“Officially based on the numbers we have a clear recession,” he said, adding: “There is little doubt whether the numbers being recorded at the moment are really representative. I am not saying that all cases are recorded, but the trend if it is representative, or if there is a subscription of the problem. Because we are after four days of holidays, Lights, St. John and Weekend that traditionally fewer cases are recorded. “And now he has bad weather that makes it difficult for someone to go for a test if he is not sure he is infected.”

If the reduction of cases is confirmed in the coming days, we will be not only in de-escalation, but also in recession, says the expert:

“Based on the weekly average of the reproduction rate and the speed of the pandemic, we are below the unit. That means we are officially in recession. ” Thus, if in the next two days there is no new “negative record” in cases, then the declining course of the Omicron variant will be officially confirmed.

By Gianna Soulaki / iatropedia.gr.

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