The Risk of Britain’s Super Controversial Coronavirus Tactic (opinion ONLY based article copied from a Greek magazine)

 

The only country in the world that does not want to protect its citizens but instead sticks to them. What is the logic behind irrationality?

In Britain they take a huge risk based on statistical analysis and behavioral psychology that if they do well, if they do not, they will burn.

To put it as simply as I can:

Britain will use its citizens as a guinea pig , and it is possible to put on the glasses in all other countries, but there is also a risk that the phase will become Hunger Games.

They want to protect both the patients and the economy,  and instead of lockdown now, they will leave some of the population dead, which means they could leave more than 250,000 of the most vulnerable people dead.

If 60% get sick for a start, they think they will all have Immune Herd. Then they will get a little bit sicker, and by the end of the season Britain will have almost achieved complete immunity and will have been unleashed by the coronavirus once and for all.

On the contrary (according to British estimates),  the other countries that protect and limit the outbreaks will be constantly (up to a couple of years to get a vaccine) be at the mercy of the virus and will have to be closed in September all over again. at a huge cost to the economy.

In short, it’s like a plaster that if you take it out quickly hurts a lot but you’re done, and if you pull it out a little bit in the long run (or until a vaccine is found in 12-18 months)

All this, of course, if the calculations prove to be correct. If the virus does not mutate, it does not turn out that those who have been stuck and cured can re-infect the same virus (probably unlikely) or a mutation (unknown probability) if the country withstands up to 300,000 deaths in the coming months. And there are parameters that are considered unknown.

Upon learning of the above  I understood why so many in Britain were freaking out, watching Boris Johnson whistle indifferently, and remembering in horror that he was (in truth!) Identifying with the mayor in the movie Sharkey’s “No Shark” to protect the citizens and not close the beach, with the known results. “It is a misunderstood character” he had stated, and it seems likely to follow suit.

More information on Herd Immunity  and Johnson’s plans that no other country on the planet shares:

Immune Immunity is achieved when a critical proportion  of the population has become infected with the virus and become immune. Thus the probability of transmission decreases (at least theoretically) dramatically until the virus is gradually eliminated.

What they say is going to happen in other countries (and in Greece)  is that every time we stop Lockdown the virus will reappear and the outbreaks will increase again. Then we will restart Lockdown, when we stop it will reappear and so on.

Britain’s tactics will be different:

Estimating that sooner or later  a large percentage – up to 80% of the population – will be infected by the virus. Since they can’t stop it, they should check it out, says Professor Ian Donald, who specializes in the social psychology of microbial immunity.

I translate his  thread  on Twitter:

“The Italian model wants to stop the transmission. Britain only wants the virus to be transmitted to specific groups of people. The goal is to stick with as many low-risk individuals as possible, and with the immunity to reduce transmission to high-risk individuals.

The government looks like at this stage people want to stick around until the hospitals are filled. Then they want to reduce – but not stop – the transmission rate. Ideally they want a balance: To get in the hospitals as many as they come out. This balance is the biggest risk.

Those who are now immune will go back to their jobs, go to pubs etc, and the economy will operate without losses.

The children are going through the illness very lightly, so the government will use them as a transmission weapon when it wants to increase the incidence. When it wants to slow down, the cannula can close, so schools will close. Same with large gatherings, for example concerts or sports matches. And then the cannula will reopen.

This means that any lockdown will last much less than in other countries AND will result in an increasing number of citizens with immunity. This is a sustainable plan.

After a while, the majority of the population will be immune, the seriously ill will have received appropriate treatment and have been discharged from hospitals, and the country will become immune. The most vulnerable will now be at less risk.

This is what the government wants to do and it can. He walks on a tight rope now, but that’s probably the most sensible.

It’s probably the best strategy, but they should explain it more clearly. It is based on a lot of speculation so it is good to know who they are. Most encouraging is that the strategy is too clever for Boris Johnson to play any role in shaping it. ”

So the problem is that the British government has not shared with scientists what data it has to convince them that the project is actually likely to succeed. Almost all scientists disagree with the “Immunity of Agelis”:

 


And since, like almost all semi-rogue populists , Boris Johnson seems to have no sympathy and simply said that  “Many families will lose their loved ones”  because of his tactics, people are worried. They think they are taking part in an experiment that has not been put into practice, based on speculation and evidence that the government refuses to provide.

Indeed, seeing the British  around the world locked up in their homes and protected as much as possible, there is a chance to imitate him. This would spoil the plans for fast-spreading the virus, as this implies with respect to the models based on the Johnson plan and the behavior they take for granted.

Shortly before,  I saw that the British sports world decided to stop all activities, despite the will of the government, and the government was forced to step down, turning 180 degrees on the subject of sports events.

The sequel will be of immense interest.

Source: mikropragmata.lifo.gr

 
 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *